MLB Hit Rates

Retail sportsbooks lean hard on long-shot bets — big odds, thin real chances. The price looks generous because the probability is worse than it feels. Our picks are data-driven and every one of them is graded here, so you can judge a bet by its actual chance of hitting rather than by how the odds are packaged. Where our hit rate beats the market’s, that gap is your leverage.

Last graded Aug 5, 2026 4:15 PM ET · 16,085 picks graded since May 25, 2026

48.8%

7843–8225–17 · n=16,085 · leg hit rate, all time

Leg hit rate48.8%▲ +2.7 pp14-day trend

Parlay win rate30.6%▶ -0.0 ppwhole ticket, all legs hit

Net units-132.1u▲ +17.2ulong shots only, priced subset, n=601

Market baseline56.5%▲ +6.1 ppfavored side, all books

What each number means

Our picks (legs)

48.8%

7843–8225 · every graded straight pick

Market baseline

56.5%

1894–1456 · how often the favored side wins

When we disagreed

42.5%

675–913 · our rate only when we broke from the market

Long shots

27.0%

1898–5126 · -132.1u over 601 priced picks

Straight picks by market

Bars above the line beat the −110 breakeven rate (52.4%); bars below it don’t.

Game markets

Moneyline427–35754.5%

Total396–37451.4%

Spread378–40648.2%

baseline 52.4%

Table view

MLB game-market hit rate vs. breakeven
Label	Value	Context
Moneyline	54.5%	427–357
Total	51.4%	396–374
Spread	48.2%	378–406

Player props

Pitcher Strikeouts358–21262.8%

Batter Hits2941–213358.0%

Batter Total Bases2143–187353.4%

Batter Runs338–63834.6%

Batter Rbis663–131933.5%

Batter Home Runs124–84412.8%

baseline 52.4%

Table view

MLB player-prop hit rate vs. breakeven
Label	Value	Context
Pitcher Strikeouts	62.8%	358–212
Batter Hits	58.0%	2941–2133
Batter Total Bases	53.4%	2143–1873
Batter Runs	34.6%	338–638
Batter Rbis	33.5%	663–1319
Batter Home Runs	12.8%	124–844

Over vs. under, by market

The side-mix honesty check — are we leaning one direction more than the results support?

Under Over

Total53.5% under (n=438) 48.8% over (n=346)

Batter Hits63.1% under (n=578) 57.3% over (n=4498)

Batter Home Runsno unders 12.8% over (n=968)

Batter Rbis76.8% under (n=263) 26.8% over (n=1719)

Batter Total Bases62.9% under (n=464) 52.1% over (n=3553)

Batter Runsno unders 34.6% over (n=976)

Pitcher Strikeouts34.8% under (n=69) 66.7% over (n=501)

Table view

MLB over vs. under hit rate by market
Label	Under	Over
Total	53.5% under (n=438)	48.8% over (n=346)
Batter Hits	63.1% under (n=578)	57.3% over (n=4498)
Batter Home Runs	no unders	12.8% over (n=968)
Batter Rbis	76.8% under (n=263)	26.8% over (n=1719)
Batter Total Bases	62.9% under (n=464)	52.1% over (n=3553)
Batter Runs	no unders	34.6% over (n=976)
Pitcher Strikeouts	34.8% under (n=69)	66.7% over (n=501)

Does our confidence label mean anything?

If our confidence tiers are honest, this chart should slope up: Strong should hit more than Lean, and Lean more than Slight.

Slightn=1028640.7%

Leann=159258.7%

Strongn=420764.8%

Table view

MLB hit rate by confidence tier
Label	Value	Context
Slight	40.7%	n=10286
Lean	58.7%	n=1592
Strong	64.8%	n=4207

Parlays

Actual win rate by parlay type

Total Basesn=4468.2%

RBIsn=2152.4%

2-Leg Parlayn=18237.4%

Game Outcomen=18432.6%

Pitcher K'sn=10332.0%

3-Leg Parlayn=6328.6%

Hitsn=3525.7%

4-Leg Parlayn=4422.7%

Same-Gamen=1921.1%

Game Totaln=6214.5%

Runsn=224.5%

5-Leg Parlayn=80.0%

Home Runsn=410.0%

Table view

MLB whole-parlay win rate by type
Label	Value	Context
Total Bases	68.2%	n=44
RBIs	52.4%	n=21
2-Leg Parlay	37.4%	n=182
Game Outcome	32.6%	n=184
Pitcher K's	32.0%	n=103
3-Leg Parlay	28.6%	n=63
Hits	25.7%	n=35
4-Leg Parlay	22.7%	n=44
Same-Game	21.1%	n=19
Game Total	14.5%	n=62
Runs	4.5%	n=22
5-Leg Parlay	0.0%	n=8
Home Runs	0.0%	n=41

Actual vs. expected

Expected assumes independent legs (leg rate raised to the average leg count). A leg hit rate and a parlay hit rate are different measurements — three legs at 55% each is roughly a 17% parlay, not 55%.

Expected Actual

Total Basesavg 2.5 legs16.9% expected 68.2% actual

RBIsavg 2.4 legs17.5% expected 52.4% actual

2-Leg Parlayavg 2.0 legs23.8% expected 37.4% actual

Game Outcomeavg 2.5 legs16.6% expected 32.6% actual

Pitcher K'savg 2.5 legs16.8% expected 32.0% actual

3-Leg Parlayavg 3.0 legs11.6% expected 28.6% actual

Hitsavg 2.5 legs17.2% expected 25.7% actual

4-Leg Parlayavg 4.0 legs5.7% expected 22.7% actual

Same-Gameavg 3.0 legs11.6% expected 21.1% actual

Game Totalavg 2.5 legs16.6% expected 14.5% actual

Runsavg 2.5 legs17.2% expected 4.5% actual

5-Leg Parlayavg 5.0 legs2.8% expected 0.0% actual

Home Runsavg 2.4 legs17.4% expected 0.0% actual

Table view

MLB actual vs. expected parlay win rate
Label	Expected	Actual
Total Bases	16.9% expected	68.2% actual
RBIs	17.5% expected	52.4% actual
2-Leg Parlay	23.8% expected	37.4% actual
Game Outcome	16.6% expected	32.6% actual
Pitcher K's	16.8% expected	32.0% actual
3-Leg Parlay	11.6% expected	28.6% actual
Hits	17.2% expected	25.7% actual
4-Leg Parlay	5.7% expected	22.7% actual
Same-Game	11.6% expected	21.1% actual
Game Total	16.6% expected	14.5% actual
Runs	17.2% expected	4.5% actual
5-Leg Parlay	2.8% expected	0.0% actual
Home Runs	17.4% expected	0.0% actual

Methodology

What counts as a "leg" hit rate?

A leg is one graded pick — one side of one market on one game or player prop. The leg hit rate is wins divided by decided legs (wins plus losses; pushes are excluded from both sides).

How is a parlay hit rate different from a leg hit rate?

A parlay only pays out when every leg in it hits. A parlay hit rate is the share of full parlay tickets that won outright, so it is always lower than the leg hit rate that built it.

What is the market baseline / breakeven rate?

At standard −110 odds, a bettor needs to win about 52.4% of the time just to break even before any edge. We show our own hit rate against that line so it can be judged as leverage, not just a percentage.

What is a "long shot" pick?

A long shot is a player-prop pick our model gave less than a 50% chance of hitting before the game. We track these separately by units won or lost against the actual book price, not by win percentage alone.

Why does confidence calibration matter?

Every pick is labeled Slight, Lean, or Strong before the game is played. If that label means anything, Strong picks should hit more often than Lean, and Lean more often than Slight — the chart above shows that comparison directly.